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FORECASTING PowerPoint Presentation

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FORECASTING Presentation Transcript

Slide 1 - (Strategic Management) FORECASTING
Slide 2 - What is it about? Forecasting is a process aimed at predicting changing conditions and future events that may significantly affect the business of an organization The fore­casting process is important to both planning and decision making because each depends heavily on assessments of future conditions.
Slide 3 - Quantitative Forecasting Quantitative forecasting relies on numerical data and mathematical models to predict future conditions. Time-series methods Time-series Methods use historical data to develop forecasts of the future. The assumption underlying time-series models is that there are patterns or combinations of patterns that repeat over time. b. Explanatory, or Causal, Models Explanatory, or causal, models attempt to identify the major variables that are related to or have caused particular past conditions and then use current measures of those variables (predictors) to pre­dict future conditions.
Slide 4 - c. Monitoring Methods Monitoring methods provide early warning signals of significant changes in established patterns and relationships so that managers can assess the likely impact and plan responses if necessary. Quantitative ap­proaches to monitoring rely on a tracking signal. A tracking signal is a mathemati­cally derived measure that is based on recent fluctuations in a variable of interest and is designed to identify possible significant deviations presently occurring that are worthy of managerial attention.
Slide 5 - Promoting Innovation: Technological, or Qualitative, Forecasting Quantitative forecasting relies oThe rapid pace of technological change has seen innovations in lasers, biotechnology, robotics, and data communications dramatically change surgery practices, the processes used for manufacturing almost every mass-produced product, pharmaceutical offerings, and the practicality of cellular telephones.
Slide 6 - The Delphi Method The Delphi method is a structured approach to gaining the judgments of a number of experts on a specific issue relating to the future. One exceptional aspect of the Delphi method, which was originally developed at the Rand Corporation, is that the experts are not brought together to discuss their views. Delphi Method for Marketing decisions
Slide 7 - b. Morphological Analysis Based on the work of Swiss mathematician Frank Zwicky, morphological analysis is a system of forecasting potential technological breakthroughs by breaking the possibilities into component attributes and evaluating various attribute combinations. c. The Prospective Developed in France and widely used in Europe, the La Pro­spective view (sometimes also called the futuristics or futuribles view) argues that there are many different possible futures depending on such factors as confrontations among actors, the continuation of current trends, regulatory and other constraints, and the relative power of the actors involved.
Slide 8 - Judgmental Forecasting Judgmental forecasting relies mainly on individual judgments or committee agreements regarding future conditions. The Jury of Executive Opinion Since the estimators are in direct contact with one another, the outcome may be heavily weighted by power and personality factors within the group. b. Sales-Force Composites The sales-force composite is a means of forecasting that is used mainly to predict future sales and typically involves obtaining the views of various salespeople, sales managers, and/or distributors regarding the sales outlook. Salespeople and distributors tend to be relatively close to the customer, they often do not have information about broad economic factors that may affect future sales.
Slide 9 - c. Choosing a forecasting method: Various criteria can be used in selecting a forecasting method. Managers need to consider such factors as the desired time horizon for the forecast, type of accu­racy needed, ease of understanding, and development costs. The use of a defined method depends on the needs of the particular fore­casting situation.
Slide 10 - Thank You
 

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