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Will we soon live to a 100? PowerPoint Presentation

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About This Presentation

gaetan

Description : This is a study using historical data and forecasts of life expectancy for several countries. The data and forecasts come from the UN - Population Division. While the historical data is most interesting, the forecasts are highly optimistic as they project a linear trend way into the future. Meanwhile, those forecasts should have followed a much more realistic logarithmic curve reflecting slower increase in life expectancy as the life expectancy rises.

Tags : life expectancy | health | data analytics | data visualization

Published on : Feb 02, 2022
Views : 564 | Downloads : 0

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Will we soon live to a 100? Presentation Transcript

Slide 1 -

Life Expectancy Trends Will we soon live to a 100? The danger of linear extrapolation Gaetan Lion, February 1, 2022

Slide 2 -

Life Expectancy History I am focusing on several countries with long life expectancy plus the US and China. 2

Slide 3 -

The Countries 3 * South Korea

Slide 4 -

Source: United Nations – Population Division Since 1980, life expectancy has grown a lot slower in the US. And, over the most recent decade it has remained flat at around 79 years. Meanwhile, it has kept on rising fairly rapidly reaching between 82 to 84 years for the other Anglo Saxon countries. 4 The US lags big time

Slide 5 -

Source: United Nations – Population Division In 1950, Spain’s life expectancy was much shorter than Sweden and Switzerland. But, it caught up with the others by 1980. And, these three European countries respective life expectancy kept on rising fairly rapidly to the present reaching around 83 years old currently. 5 Spain catches up

Slide 6 -

Source: United Nations – Population Division Back in 1950, both Korea (meaning South Korea) and China had respectively far shorter life expectancy. Korea has nearly caught up with Japan who has the longest life expectancy among major countries. China’s life expectancy has also risen dramatically, but not quite as much as Korea. 6 South Korea catches up to Japan

Slide 7 -

Source: United Nations – Population Division Several of the Anglo Saxon, European, and Asian countries respective life expectancy has converged upward towards 82 to 84 years old. This is despite these countries being geographically and genetically very distant. And, also starting from drastically different life expectancy back in 1950. 7 Convergence

Slide 8 -

Focusing on the converging countries, the upward visual convergence towards a life expectancy in the 82 to 84 year old range is spectacular. This is especially the case when you note the geographical and genetic distance of the respective countries and the drastically different starting points back in 1950. 8

Slide 9 -

Healthy Life Expectancy History 9 Healthy life expectancy equals life expectancy minus years living with disability. This typically truncates life expectancy by 8 to 11 years depending on the country.

Slide 10 -

Source: IHME, Global Burden of Disease Again, notice how the US is not faring well on a relative basis. Its upward slope of the rising healthy life expectancy trend line is far flatter than for the other countries. And, the mentioned US slope has remained flat since 2010. 10 The US lags big time

Slide 11 -

Source: IHME, Global Burden of Disease Spain achievement on this count is not well known. Few would expect that Spaniards would outperform the Swiss and Swedes on this one measure. 11 Spain surprises

Slide 12 -

Source: IHME, Global Burden of Disease There is a remaining reasonably strong differentiation between the three Asian countries. China is still way behind the other two countries. 12

Slide 13 -

Source: IHME, Global Burden of Disease The convergence between these countries is visually not quite as noticeable than when focusing on life expectancy. This is in good part due to the different sensitivities (or shorter yearly intervals) disclosed on the Y-axis of the graphs. 13

Slide 14 -

Comparison Summary 14

Slide 15 -

Source: United Nations _ population Division. IHME, Global Burden of Disease When you look at actual numbers, you observe that the rate of convergence between countries is very similar for both measures (life expectancy and healthy life expectancy). Notice how in both measures, the US and China trail far behind the other countries. 15

Slide 16 -

Life Expectancy Forecast out to 2099 16

Slide 17 -

Source: United Nations – Population Division 17 Highly optimistic, read later why.

Slide 18 -

Source: United Nations – Population Division 18 Highly optimistic, read later why.

Slide 19 -

Source: United Nations – Population Division 19 Highly optimistic, read later why.

Slide 20 -

Source: United Nations – Population Division 20 Highly optimistic, read later why.

Slide 21 -

Why the Life Expectancy Forecasts to 2099 are optimistic 21

Slide 22 -

The Danger of Linear Extrapolation: The data Note how the projections assume a constant increase of around 1 to 1.1 year per decade increase in life expectancy. Source: United Nations – Population Division 22

Slide 23 -

The Danger of Linear Extrapolation: The Narrative Adding one year to life expectancy gets increasingly difficult as you move upward from 80 to 85 and 90 years old. “Attaining a life expectancy of 90 requires the equivalent of cures for cancer, all cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, infectious diseases, and accidental deaths. Getting to 95 requires the elimination of all known causes of death short of aging” Dr. S. Jay Olshansky Professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of Illinois School of Public Health and Board Member of the American Federation for Aging Research. 23

Slide 24 -

Will we ever reach a life expectancy of a 100? Or even 90? The Law of Averages raises serious doubt 24 “ … The law of averages requires that for 100 to be the new life expectancy, a significant proportion of the population routinely must survive beyond the current maximum lifespan limit of 122-an age known to have been reached by just one person. This alone is sufficient to cast doubt on claims that 100 is the new normal.” Dr. S. Jay Olshansky Using Olshansky’s logic suggests that reaching a life expectancy of 90 would be challenging. For each person dying at 70, you need 1 making it to 110. For each person dying at 50, you need 2 making it to 110. For each child-birth casualty, you would need 4.5 individuals making it to 110.

Slide 25 -

UN projections are highly optimistic outlining the danger of linear extrapolation into the distant future 25 Source: United Nations – Population Division The converging countries’ life expectancies cross 90 by mid 2070s, and keep on trucking upward (1.1 year per decade) following a linear trend till 2099. Instead, it is more likely that the trend lines will follow a logarithmic curve with each decade corresponding to an ever decreasing increase in life expectancy.

Slide 26 -

Health trends are not supportive of ever rising life expectancy 26

Slide 27 -

Prevalence of diabetes type 2 is increasing rapidly worldwide 27

Slide 28 -

Diabetes prevalence has risen very rapidly in the US 28

Slide 29 -

Diabetes prevalence has more than doubled in China within less than two decades. The trend is flatter in Japan and Korea. China 29

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Obesity is rising worldwide North America & Europe 30

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Obesity is increasingly prevalent among both adults and children worldwide 31

Slide 32 -

BMI is rising rapidly for both the US and the World 32

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The prevalence (%) for the tranches in yellow, orange, and red are growing rapidly over time for both men and women worldwide. These tranches denote the % of the population that is overweight or obese. 33

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In high income countries, the level of fitness has declined during the 21st century 34

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Physical fitness is inadequate for close to a third of the population worldwide 35

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